Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
29/1311Z from an unnumbered region on the SE limb. There are currently 6
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 28/2106Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/0416Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/0431Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1664 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 116
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 115/113/113
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  006/005-008/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/50/50
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings

Real Time Images of the Sun

SOHO EIT 304
Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
Mauna Loa Solar Image
Latest Mauna Loa image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Images of the solar corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Solar X-ray Flux
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

Solar Cycle

Sun Spot Number Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression.
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Graph showing Ap Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression.

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

VHF and HF Band Conditions

Solar-Terrestrial Data
Solar-Terrestrial Data


Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

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spaceweather.com
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
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Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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