Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2022 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/0603Z from Region 3157 (N16E07). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 610 km/s at 08/1636Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 08/0944Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
07/2213Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (09 Dec, 11 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (10 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 143
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  009/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/20
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