Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2023 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
05/0017Z from Region 3320 (N10W21). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (06 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 05/0820Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
05/1931Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/0825Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jun), quiet levels on
day two (07 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jun).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (06 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 169
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 170/170/160
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  007/008-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/20
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