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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 09/0336Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/2126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/2154Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 361 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 May,
11 May, 12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 122
Predicted   10 May-12 May 122/120/118
90 Day Mean        09 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  007/006-009/008-007/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/25
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